Our system grabs the NWS technical discussion each hour. This page is definitely for people with serious forecast needs, as the report is extremely technical. What it does do that other forecast products do not, however, is give you a sense of what the forecasters are thinking about and what larger weather patterns might be forming. If you’re a weather geek, you’ll find this interesting - else - “move along, nothing to see here”
The NWS has a glossary of many of the terms and abbreviations used in the discussion forecast on this page.
FXUS66 KMTR 032337
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
236 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION…AS OF 2:35 PM PDT FRIDAY…SO FAR A VERY PLEASANT DAY
AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY AREA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
THE STRATUS CLEARED OUT AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 70S TO LOWER 90S
INLAND. A QUICK GLIMPSE AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE DOES SHOW
STRATUS JUST OFF OF THE COAST AND THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS
INDICATING THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 1600 FEET DEEP.
THEREFORE…EXPECT STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
TOMORROW…INDEPENDENCE DAY…WILL AGAIN BE PLEASANT WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COOL DOWN IS STILL EXPECTED BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS BEING WELL ADVERTISED BY
BOTH THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL GFS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING AND 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE CWA. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW
HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL RUNNING ABOUT 3 TO 5 DM LOWER AT 500MB.
WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING 850 TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 10 DEGREES
CELSIUS TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA EXPECT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 68 IN SAN FRANCISCO AND 74 IN SAN JOSE.
ALTHOUGH…THE TWO MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE OF MAGNITUDE OF THIS
TROUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION…AS OF 4:30 PM PDT FRIDAY…AFTERNOON SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MORE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THAN YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND MARINE LAYER IS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY…THE PRESENCE OF MORE LOW CLOUDS AT THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING LESS LOW CLOUDS PENETRATING INLAND TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW. AT THE PRESENT TIME THIS OFFSHORE FLOW HAS NOT BEEN
OBSERVED. IRREGARDLESS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AIRPORT EVENING RUSH HOUR.
VICINITY OF KSFO…VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH
HOUR WITH LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. BASES NEAR 1000 FEET.
GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH…VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING
RUSH HOUR WITH LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. BASES NEAR 1000
FEET.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS…STRATUS FILLING IN OVER SOUTHERN MRY BAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO MRY EARLY TONIGHT AROUND 03Z WHILE SNS
SHOULD HAVE CEILINGS BY 06Z. BASES NEAR 1000 FEET.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
.TNGT…SCA…SF BAY.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA/W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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