Discussion

Our system grabs the NWS technical discussion each hour. This page is definitely for people with serious forecast needs, as the report is extremely technical. What it does do that other forecast products do not, however, is give you a sense of what the forecasters are thinking about and what larger weather patterns might be forming. If you’re a weather geek, you’ll find this interesting - else - “move along, nothing to see here” :)

The NWS has a glossary of many of the terms and abbreviations used in the discussion forecast on this page.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS66 KMTR 041920
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
This National Weather Service
product is intended to provide a
well-reasoned discussion of the
meteorological thinking which went
into the preparation of the Zone
Forecast Product. The forecaster
will try to focus on the most
particular challenges of the
forecast. The text will be written
in plain language or in proper
contractions. At the end of the
discussion, there will be a list of
all advisor…
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
An agency of the Federal Government
within the Department of Commerce,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
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SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CACA
California
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1120 AM PSTPST
Pacific Standard Time
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THU DEC 4 2008

.DISCUSSION…AS OF 11:20 AM PSTPST
Pacific Standard Time
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THURSDAY…DID A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR SANTA ROSA AS FOGFOG
(abbrev. F) Fog is water droplets
suspended in the air at the Earth’s
surface. Fog is often hazardous
when the visibility is reduced to ¼
mile or less.
Click for More…
LINGERS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION…WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HOURS MAKES. WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOGFOG
(abbrev. F) Fog is water droplets
suspended in the air at the Earth’s
surface. Fog is often hazardous
when the visibility is reduced to ¼
mile or less.
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COVERED MUCH OF THE BAY AREA YESTERDAY MORNING…BUT THIS
MORNING ONLY PATCHY FOGFOG
(abbrev. F) Fog is water droplets
suspended in the air at the Earth’s
surface. Fog is often hazardous
when the visibility is reduced to ¼
mile or less.
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PREVAILS. PER THE FTFT
Feet (or foot)
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ORD PROFILER AND KOAK
SOUNDINGSOUNDING
A set of data measuring the
vertical structure of an
atmospheric parameter (temperature,
humidity, pressure, winds, etc.) at
a given time.
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…COOLER AIR EXISTS ALOFT TODAY WHICH IS LIKELY HAMPERING
THE DENSE FOGFOG
(abbrev. F) Fog is water droplets
suspended in the air at the Earth’s
surface. Fog is often hazardous
when the visibility is reduced to ¼
mile or less.
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DEVELOPMENT. NONE THE LESS…PATCHY FOGFOG
(abbrev. F) Fog is water droplets
suspended in the air at the Earth’s
surface. Fog is often hazardous
when the visibility is reduced to ¼
mile or less.
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(LOCALLY
DENSE) WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MIDMID
Middle
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MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
HOWEVER…THERE WILL BE ONE EXCEPTION TO THAT…THE NORTH BAY. SINCE
MAXMAX
Maximum - (usually in reference to
temperature)
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TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
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WERE ONLY IN THE MIDMID
Middle
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50S YESTERDAY DUE TO THE DENSE FOGFOG
(abbrev. F) Fog is water droplets
suspended in the air at the Earth’s
surface. Fog is often hazardous
when the visibility is reduced to ¼
mile or less.
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TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
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TODAY WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE NORTH BAY
WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

OTHERWISE…A DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS VALID THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION A REX
BLOCK SCENARIO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER PACPAC
Pacific
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NWNW
Northwest
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AND A LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST. IN THIS SET UP…DRY NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOWFLOW
(abbrev. FLW) Wind. In meteorology,
a qualitative reference of an air
parcel(s) with respect to its
direction of movement, sometimes
specified at a certain height or
pressure elevation, e.g. westerly
flow at 500 mb. In hydrology, the
volumetric flow of water past a
given point on a stream or river,
usually in cubic feet per second
(cfs)
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DEVELOP ACROSS THE BAY AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE…
WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEARMOSTLY CLEAR
When the predominant/average sky
condition is covered 1/8 to 2/8
with opaque (not transparent)
clouds. Sometimes referred to as
Mostly Sunny if this condition is
present during daylight hours.
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SKIES IN THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. NO
MORNING UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

THE BLOCKING PATTERN SEEMS TO PREVAIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SLOWLY BECOME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION…AS OF 9:30 AM PSTPST
Pacific Standard Time
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THURSDAY…CONDITIONS OVER SF BAY HAVE
IMPROVED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOWOFFSHORE FLOW
Occurs when air moves from land to
sea, and is usually associated with
dry weather.
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ALOFT HAS MIXED DRIER
AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYERBOUNDARY LAYER
In general, a layer of air adjacent
to a bounding surface.
Specifically, the term most often
refers to the planetary boundary
layer, which is the layer within
which the effects of friction are
significant. For the earth, this
layer is considered to be roughly
the lowest one or two kilometers of
the atmosphere. It is within this
layer that temperatures are most
strongly affected by daytime
insolati…
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AND CLEARED MOST LOW CLOUDSLOW CLOUDS
Usually refers to stratus clouds.

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OVER SF
BAY. LIGHT HAZEHAZE
(abbrev. HZ)- An aggregation in the
atmosphere of very fine, widely
dispersed, solid or liquid
particles, or both, giving the air
an opalescent appearance that
subdues colors.
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WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL DRYING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
GREAT BASINBASIN
An area having a common outlet for
its surface runoff. Also called a
“Drainage Basin.”
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MAINTAINS OFFSHORE FLOWOFFSHORE FLOW
Occurs when air moves from land to
sea, and is usually associated with
dry weather.
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. LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
BY THIS EVENING TO PREVENT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR SF BAY
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER…LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOIST IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FOGFOG
(abbrev. F) Fog is water droplets
suspended in the air at the Earth’s
surface. Fog is often hazardous
when the visibility is reduced to ¼
mile or less.
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COULD ADVECT
WESTWARD INTO SF BAY LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOWFLOW
(abbrev. FLW) Wind. In meteorology,
a qualitative reference of an air
parcel(s) with respect to its
direction of movement, sometimes
specified at a certain height or
pressure elevation, e.g. westerly
flow at 500 mb. In hydrology, the
volumetric flow of water past a
given point on a stream or river,
usually in cubic feet per second
(cfs)
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. BUT THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY. ONLY AREA THAT LIKELY WILL SEE FOGFOG
(abbrev. F) Fog is water droplets
suspended in the air at the Earth’s
surface. Fog is often hazardous
when the visibility is reduced to ¼
mile or less.
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AGAIN OVERNIGHT
IS KSTS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
.TDA…SCA…ROUGH BAR

&&


PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

NWSNWS
National Weather Service. An agency
of the Federal Government within
the Department of Commerce,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
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